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The forecast is an integral part of the annual budget process. An effective forecast allows for improved decision-making in maintaining fiscal discipline and delivering essential community services. The GFOA recommends that governments at all levels forecast major revenues and expenditures. The forecast should extend several years into the future. The forecast, along with its underlying assumptions and methodology, should be clearly stated and made available to stakeholders in the budget process.
It also should be concisely presented in the final budget document. The forecast should be regularly monitored and periodically updated. The key steps in a sound forecasting process include the following:. The first step in the forecasting process is to define the fundamental issues impacting the forecast.
The results of this initial step will provide insight into which forecasting methods are most appropriate and will help create a common understanding among the forecasters as to the goals of the forecasting process. There are four key questions to consider when defining assumptions for the forecast:. To support the forecasting process, use statistical data as well as the accumulated judgment and expertise of individuals inside and perhaps also outside the organization.
For instance, department heads may have an insight into activities within their own section. This would also include events that could cause a disruption in the operating environment and in prevailing trends. Both are important for forecasting because they allow the forecaster to more intelligently build quantitative models and to make a forecast using his or her own judgment. Assumptions should be documented for future reference, so the financial forecasting process has some basis to start from at the beginning of each cycle.
Also, become familiar with other longer-term planning efforts of the organization or other organizations that impact financial decisions and the fiscal environment. The analysis should include an examination of historical data and relevant economic conditions.
This improves the quality of the forecast both by giving the forecaster better insight into when and what quantitative techniques might be appropriate and also is useful for supplementing forecasting methods.
The forecaster is looking for consistent patterns or trends. In particular, the forecaster should look for evidence related to:. Keep in mind that the chosen method for one program may differ for another.
While complex techniques may get more accurate answers in particular cases, simpler techniques tend to perform just as well or better on average. Also, simpler techniques require less data, less expertise on the part of the forecaster, and less overall effort.
Three basic models of forecasting to consider include:. Making the forecast and using forecast ranges are included within the implementation methods. The purpose of a forecast is to inform and assist in decision-making. Three items that are essential to a compelling and informative forecast presentation include:.
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